A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
